2013 Academy Awards Preview (2012 film year)
Interesting year in that there is no single clear front-runner for Best Picture. Therefore, there WILL be surprises! As usual, I will give you my best Prediction for the winner in each category (Predix) and who I thought was (Best) .
VISUAL EFFECTS: HOBBIT may have had an edge if it didn’t follow so closely on the heels of the LORD OF THE RINGS trilogy, but the once thought “unfilmable” LIFE OF PI will deservedly take this.
Predix & Best: LIFE OF PI.
SOUND MIXING & SOUND EDITING: The nominees don’t line up as much as they usually do, so this should be a year with different winners. LES MISERABLES has the edge in Mixing because of the live singing on camera. Editing should go to ZERO DARK THIRTY, but, it will be nipped by SKYFALL as the long overlooked Bond films win a couple that night.
Mixing: Predix & Best: LES MISERABLES
Editing: Predix: SKYFALL Best: ZERO DARK THIRTY
FILM EDITING: Very often goes with the Best Picture winner, so this may tip off the expected face-off between ARGO & LINCOLN. Not sure why SILVER LININGS is here other that that Best Picture nom.
Predix & Best: ARGO, W.Goldenberg
SONG: Usually this would go to a song from a Musical (LES MISERABLES), but that film is handicapped by the fact that it’s best known songs are ineligable because they were in the original play. Plus, hey, she’s Adele. I just prefered Norah Jones’ ditty.
Predix: SKYFALL, Adele & P.Epworth Best: TED, W.Murphy & S.MacFarlane
ORIGINAL MUSIC SCORE: Most winners in this category recently have been the most easily enjoyable as a CD or Download, rather than what works best as a FILM SCORE (you know, what they are supposed to be awarded for). That trend will continue unless it’s an ARGO sweep.
Predix: LIFE OF PI, Mychael Danna Best: ARGO, Alexandre Desplat
MAKEUP: HOBBIT may again be dinged because of following LORD OF THE RINGS so closely and given to all the muck and hair in MISERABLES.
Predix & Best: THE HOBBITT
ANIMATED FEATURE: There are no small arty films this year to crash the kiddie animation party.
Predix: WRECK IT RALPH.
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: AMOUR should be the clear front-runner here by virtue of nominations in four other categories, but stranger things have happened with this award since so few voters have seen all 5 nominees.
Predix: AMOUR
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: In a curious last-minute move, the Academy decided to send DVDS of every nominee to every Academy voter (not just members of the Doc branch). That should open the way for the most popular of the nominees to win (although I suspect the results would have been the same). The fact that SEARCHING FOR SUGAR MAN is also one of the best films of the year, period, should also cinch this.
Predix: SEARCHING FOR SUGAR MAN
COSTUME DESIGN: Again, this is a category tailor made (sorry) for Musicals, the dreariness of LES MISERABLES opens the way for the exquisitely well-done work in....
Predix & Best: ANNA KARENINA, J.Durran
PRODUCTION DESIGN: Ditto, again.
Predix & Best: ANNA KARENINA
CINEMATOGRAPHY: With most films in big cities now playing almost exclusively in inferior Digital projection it makes judging this category much more difficult, even in movies shot on film. Janusz Kaminski’s work in particular seems to have suffered the most in translation from film to digital with his use of smoke etc.. Seamus McGarvey’s KARENINA less so. I’m not a fan of 3D, but, Claudio Miranda’s work on PI had depth without gimmickery.
Predix: LIFE OF PI, Claudio Miranda Best, from what I could see on crappy digital: ANNA KARENINA, Seamus McGarvey
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Without the torturous “torture” controversy, Mark Boal’s intricate ZERO DARK THIRTY probably would have had an edge. This is the full Academy’s most obvious opportunity to reward AMOUR (only a select group votes on Foreign Language). If the precious MOONRISE KINGDOM or the asinine, ridiculous DJANGO UNCHAINED win, I may throw a shoe Middle-East style at the next Academy member I meet who admits to voting for one of them..
Predix: AMOUR, Michael Haneke Best: ZERO DARK THIRTY, Mark Boal
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Tony Kushner’s literate script seemed likely take this until the ARGO bandwagon began. BEAST OF THE SOUTHERN WILD is a better film, but, it was the direction and production that made is so more than the spare screenplay.
Predix: ARGO, Chris Terio Best: LINCOLN, Tony Kushner
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: I know I’m being too reductive, but, since when is this the award for best performance in a Music Video? No doubt that Hathaway does a superb job with the song, but, there is precious little else (or even screen time) to her role. Sally Field would be a worthy winner, but, Helen Hunt faced the most challenges (not to mention screen time) in the touching THE SESSIONS.
Predix: LES MISERABLES, Anne Hathaway Best: Helen Hunt, THE SESSIONS
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: The most competitive of the Big 5 categories with all the nominees being Oscar winners. Tommy Lee Jones entered the race as the frontrunner, but, his grumpy Awards season demeanor could harm his chances. All of a sudden Robert De Niro got to be the Meryl Streep of this year’s ball – it’s been how long(32 years) since De Niro won? He’s ok, but, it’s just a small step up from what he does in the MEET THE PARENTS movies. I know Alan Arkin just won a few years ago, but, he’s a key reason ARGO was so enjoyable.
Predix: Robert De Niro, SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK Best: ARGO, Alan Arkin
BEST ACTRESS: There is a lot of sympathy for Jessica Chastain’s scrappy performance in ZERO DARK THIRTY (I thought it less convincing than most). Q. Wallis was a SIX YEAR OLD KID when she did BEASTS, and child performances are like trained animal acts IMHOP. But, after having gotten on the map with WINTER’S BONE, proved her commercial appeal with HUNGER GAMES, Jennifer Lawrence is set to complete the hat-trick here. That is, unless, 86 year old Emmanuelle Riva’s touching acting steals the voters’ hearts.
Predix: SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK, Jennifer Lawrence Best: AMOUR, Emmanuelle Riva
BEST ACTOR: Daniel Day Lewis in a landslide election. That is, unless Mitt Romney’s pollsters are to be believed and the results are “skewed”!
Predix & Best: LINCOLN, Daniel Day Lewis
BEST DIRECTOR: When the Academy decided to expand Best Picture to up to 10 nominees each year, that by definition guaranteed up to 5 alleged “snubs” per year (folks have to look up the definition of the word, really). Still Affleck and Bigelow’s lack of nominations was a surprise. Less so, because the Director’s branch has been known to nominate “outsiders” to the Hollywood elite over the years. Folks like Fellini, Bergman, Kurosawa, Lina Wertmuller and Robert Altman (even in years where his films weren’t up for Best Picture). If the award was voted on exclusively by the Director’s branch, I could see AMOUR’s Haneke or even BEAST’s Zeitlin take this. But, the larger Academy will likely give Spielberg or Ang Lee (PI) this as a “consolation” prize. The irony would not be lost since it happened to each of them before (Spielberg for SAVING PRVT.RYAN and Lee for BROKEBACK MTN.).
Predix: LINCOLN, Steven Spielberg Best: BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD, Benh Zeitlin
BEST PICTURE: BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD is the best of the 9. It’s too “small” & “arty” to win, of course (as is AMOUR). ZERO DARK THIRTY never got traction after the “torture” controversy. Longshot scenarios exist for LIFE OF PI & SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK, but they are improbable. This leaves LINCOLN and ARGO. Up until quite recently, I thought LINCOLN had the edge, but all the crying and whining about poor millionaire Ben Affleck’s “snub” (that mis-used word again) started a bandwagon which hasn’t ebbed.
Predix: ARGO Best: BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD
Selections in the other categories to fill out your Oscar Ballot:
Best Animated Short: PAPERMAN. Disney film. Attached to the probable Animated Feature winner, WRECK IT RALPH
Best Live Action Short: CURFEW. I only saw DEATH OF A SHADOW of the nominees, but CURFEW sounds the kind of film that wins here.
Best Documentary Short: OPEN HEART a stirring story of kids getting saved.
My Top Films of the Year (full details here:
http://sf.theboard.net/cgi-bin/yabb2/YaBB.pl?num=1360175733)
1. SEARCHING FOR SUGAR MAN (M. Bendjelloul)
2. BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD (B.Zeitlin)
3. DEEP BLUE SEA (T.Davies)
4. BARBARA (C.Petzhold)
5. KID WITH A BIKE (Dardenne Brothers)
6. FOOTNOTE (J.Cedar)
7. MONSIEUR LAZHAR (P.Falardeu)
8. ONCE UPON A TIME IN ANATOLIA (N.Ceylan)
9. IMPOSTER, THE (B.Layton)
10. OSLO, AUGUST 31 (J.Trier)
11. (tie)
ARGO (B.Affleck)
ZERO DARK THIRTY (K.Bigelow)
LINCOLN (S.Spielberg)
LIFE OF PI (A.Lee)
AMOUR (M.Haeneke)
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