Is this the year of the Fish romance? The angry woman with a penchant for advertising her rage? Or, will it go indie with a racial re-do of The Stepford Wives or a rebellious Sacramento teen girl? Or, will one of the traditional War or Newspaper 'important topic' titles surprise? Of course, this will also be the year of the #METOO movement, not to mention three movies with Mushrooms of all things being a key ingredient (and, curiously, also related to the #METOO moment, even they couldn't have know that when they were being made).
I will give my BEST for each category as well as the Predicted Winner PREDIX in each category where I've seen all the nominees. On to the Predictions..........

BEST ACTOR - this seemingly has been Oldman's to win ever since he was cast it seems. He's very very good and his career Oscarless, so hard to go against that tide despite some strong opposition. The Kaluuya nom is a head-scratcher. Sure, he's good in GET OUT - but, Nobody would be talking about it if it wasn't in a Best Picture nominee.
BEST & PREDIX: Gary Oldman, DARKEST HOUR

BEST ACTRESS - McDormand is such a force on and off-screen that I have a hard time seeing an upset here, despite decent competition. Ronan had the aura of a possible upset, but the LADY BIRD momentum seems to have quelled. Unless Hawkins rides a SHAPE sweep, she will have to be content with a nomination (plus, acclaim for her 'other' perfomance this past year in MAUDIE).
BEST & PREDIX: Frances McDormand, THREE BILLBOARDS

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS- A battle of the outsized TV perfomers with Janney and Metcalf, with Janney ahead by a parrot feather - and a lot of bluster. Don't understand the Blige nomination in MUDBOUND - hers is one of the least impressive in the movie. The real gem is Manville in PHANTOM THREAD, but, alas, too subtle to actually win.
BEST: Leslie Manville, THE PHANTOM THREAD PREDIX: Allison Janney, I,TONYA

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR - Like Oldman, it seemed like Willem Dafoe was going to win a 'career' Oscar for FLORIDA PROJECT, but, Rockwell's troubled cop has come to dominate the category. Harrelson in the same movie gives a warmer, more nuanced performance, but, like Manville - those usually don't win.
BEST: Woody Harrelson, THREE BILLBOARDS PREDIX: Sam Rockwell, THREE BILLBOARDS

BEST DIRECTOR - The three amigos (Inarritu, Cuaron) will complete their triple crown with Del Toro's win. It's a decent technical achievement, but, lacks cohesion. Christopher Nolan finally got a nom, but, his tour de force has been overshadowed not only by SHAPE, but, by the cheerleaders rooting on LADY BIRD and GET OUT.
BEST: Christopher Nolan, DUNKIRK PREDIX: Guillermo Del Toro, SHAPE OF WATER

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY - Perhaps the hottest category of them all, with four leading Best Picture contenders battling head to head. The cheerleading squads for Gerwig (LADY) and Peele (GET) come up against McDonagh for BILLBOARDS and Del Toro & Taylor (SHAPE). Flip a coin.
BEST: Martin McDonagh, THREE BILLBOARDS PREDIX: Jordan Peele, GET OUT
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY - 89 year old Ivory is the deserved frontrunner here. After never having won with any of his famed Merchant-Ivory productions, this should be one of the night's highlights.
BEST & PREDIX: James Ivory, CALL ME BY YOUR NAME

ANIMATED FEATURE - Never bet against a popular Disney/Pixar mainstream release - especially, if it's also critically acclaimed. For those who haven't seen it, FINDING VINCENT is a unique feature, that was fully Hand-Painted frame by frame!
PREDIX: COCO

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE - Personality driven Docs have ruled the category since voting was opened up to the general Academy (Amy Winehouse, Edward Snowden, O.J., the 20 FT FROM STARDOM singers). That gives French Director Agnes Varda (who also just won an Honorary Oscar) FACES PLACES a leg up. She's also 89, so she and Ivory would tie each other for the oldest ever Oscar winners. Plus, it's the only one of the five nominees not about a heavy subject. ICARUS' profile has been elevated since it concerns the Russian Olympic doping scandal (and Grigory is quite the personality). ABACUS is about a worthy subject (the financial crisis), but, simply isn't a very good movie - this nominatiion is ALL about the subject matter (a common critique of the category) and not about good movie-making (which is what it Should be about).
PREDIX: FACES PLACES

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE - This shapes up to a battle between Cannes award winner THE SQUARE, and the LGBT breakthrough FANTASTIC WOMAN. The Russian LOVELESS is an icy difficult gem and would deserve the win; and ON BODY AND SOUL (Hungary) is an oddball delight.
BEST: LOVELESS (Russia) PREDIX: FANTASTIC WOMAN (Chile)

CINEMATOGRAPHY - Hardcore movie fans are rooting for Roger Deakins to win on his 14th try for BLADE RUNNER 2049, but, his actual name is not on the ballot (why?). If SHAPE has a sweep, Lausten could take this. If enough Academy members saw DUNKIRK on 70mm Imax and not on screeners, van Hoytema could shine. I'm happy for Morrison breaking the gender barrier with a nomination, but, on the big screen where I saw it (and not on Netflix / Screener) MUDBOUND simply didn't look that exceptional.
BEST: Hoyte van Hoytema, DUNKIRK PREDIX: Roger Deakins, BLADE RUNNER 2049

FILM EDITING - Lee Smith's extremely intricate cutting on DUNKIRK is what makes the film work and should take this unless the flashiness of the empty BABY DRIVER steals it.
BEST & PREDIX: Lee Smith, DUNKIRK

COSTUME DESIGN - A film about Costume Design is nominated in 5 other categories? Fortunately, the work lives up to the billing here, although there is some pretty strong competition.
BEST & PREDIX: Mark Bridges, PHANTOM THREAD

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING - Gary Oldman IS Winston Churchill.
BEST & PREDIX: Kazuhiro Tsuji, David Malinowski & Lucy Sibbick, DARKEST HOUR

PRODUCTION DESIGN - Unless the gaudiness of BEAUTY AND THE BEAST surprsises here, this shapes up to a battle beyond the futurism of BLADE RUNNER 2049 and the retro SHAPE OF WATER. The orginal BLADE RUNNER legendarily lost in this category to GANDHI! History repeats.
BEST: Dennis Gassner & Alessandra Querzola, BLADE RUNNER 2049 Predix: Paul Austerberry, Jeffrey Melvin & Shane Vieau , SHAPE OF WATER

MUSICAL SCORE - Hans Zimmer's tick-tocking score, along with Smith's editing helped create Nolan's vision on DUNKIRK. But, competing against a Best Picture frontrunner, I see Desplat's pleasant soundtrack taking this. He's one of our finest composers in cinema, but, this isn't that exceptional (and some of the accompaniments seem at odds with parts of the movie to boot).
BEST: Hans Zimmer, DUNKIRK PREDIX: Alexandre Desplat, SHAPE OF WATER

BEST SONG - Never bet against a popular Disney/Pixar mainstream release - unless...a big hit song breaks out right as voting concludes.
BEST: 'Remember Me' Kristen Anderson-Lopez & Robert Lopez, COCO. PREDIX: "This Is Me” Benj Pasek, Justin Paul, GREATEST SHOWMAN

SOUND EDITING & MIXING - Usually a double dip, and DUNKIRK should rightfully take 'em both.
BEST & PREDIX: Alex Gibson, Richard King, Mark Weingarten, Gregg Landaker & Gary A. Rizzo, DUNKIRK (twice)

VISUAL EFFECTS - A war between APES and BLADE RUNNER. Remarkably, none of the current Apes movies have won. Even more remarkable, the original BLADE RUNNER didn't win, losing to E.T.! Could history repeat? Yup.
BEST: John Nelson, Paul Lambert, Richard R. Hoover, Gerd Nefzer, BLADE RUNNER 2049 PREDIX: Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, Daniel Barrett, Joel Whist , WAR OF THE PLANET OF THE APES

BEST PICTURE - Oddly, one of the most difficult categories to predict. If this were a purely most #1 votes choice, I think SHAPE would be the clear leader. But, the Preferential Ballot is more calculus than artithmetic. I could see any of 5 movies actually winning (sorry POST, DARKEST, PHANTOM & CALL ME). GET OUT and LADY BIRD would only win if they rack up lots and lots of #2's, and DUNKIRK is a longshot 'compromise' choice. In a battle between the Fish tale SHAPE and the Foul mouthed BILLBOARDS, I guess I'll lean towards the angrier movie in these turbulent times. My personal rankings: 1. DUNKIRK 2. CALL ME BY YOUR NAME (big gap) 3. GET OUT 4. LADY BIRD 5. THE POST 6. THREE BILLBOARDS 7. DARKEST HOUR 8. PHANTOM THREAD (gap) 9. SHAPE OF WATER

BEST: DUNKIRK PREDIX: THREE BILLBOARDS

Filling out the ballot with my guesses:

ANIMATED SHORT - Hey, it's Hollywood. Take local hero Kobe Bryant
PREDIX: DEAR BASKETBALL

DOCUMENTARY SHORT - Heroine

LIVE ACTION SHORT - DEKALB ELEMENTARY
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